E226: 2025 Fertilizer Forecast

A new year is upon us and U.S. farmers are taking to the office, planning for the 2025 season and keeping an eye on critical inputs like fertilizer as they do. It’s been a tumultuous few years for crop nutrient prices, and though there remain a few wild cards to watch, forecasts for the coming year suggest there might be more stability ahead.

This week, we’re joined by DTN Staff Reporter Russ Quinn to dig into the current fertilizer supply and what that’s likely to mean for market conditions going forward. 

First, we’ll take a closer look at the potash picture, even as questions about the U.S.’s trade relationships with key exporters like Canada, Russia, and Belarus come into focus. Then we’ll tackle phosphorus, who’s more limited supply might cause a wrinkle in planning, due to a combination of a reduction in Chinese exports and a countervailing duties dispute between U.S., Russian, and Moroccan companies. 

Then we’ll dive into the Nitrogen picture with a discussion of natural gas demand and how European winter weather or increasing tensions in the Middle East could disrupt key N prices in the months to come. 

Finally, we’ll dig into the possible consequences of the new U.S. administration’s proposed tariffs, the shifting landscape of global crisis, and whether the Mississippi River is full enough to move fertilizer this spring.

Read more of Russ’s reporting on the fertilizer markets here.